Chelsea’s defeat to Manchester United in the race to sign Romelu Lukaku is proving so fractious it could reportedly see Antonio Conte quit the club before the Premier League season officially starts up next month.It certainly feels as if the Blues boss has put all his eggs in one basket; before surprise reports of Manchester United agreeing a fee with Everton emerged, Lukaku being Chelsea-bound was the widely-held assumption – so wide, in fact, Conte had already cut Diego Costa loose via text message.That bridge is already burned and Chelsea have now missed out on Conte’s No.1 replacement, in worrying echoes of the club’s recruitment the last time they entered a season as reigning Premier League champions – when Jose Mourinho was sacked in December as his squad’s form, confidence and commitment spectacularly imploded.
It may well have been Lukaku or bust in the eyes of Conte, but Chelsea can’t waste any more time looking back at a deal that’s now impossible. And for all the Belgium international’s obvious qualities, boasting 85 Premier League goals at the tender age of 24, he arguably isn’t the right fit for the shoes Costa will leave behind anyway. Real Madrid’s Alvaro Morata, on the other hand, is.
At first glance, the Spain international is the riskier of the two. Whereas Lukaku has more than proved himself to be a prolific goalscorer in the Premier League, reaching double figures for the last five campaigns, Morata’s spent his entire career in either Spanish or Italian football.
He’s not been as lethal either, scoring 45 less league goals than Lukaku over the last five years despite plying his trade with two of the biggest clubs in Europe in the form of last term’s Champions League finalists.
He’s also never been the main man for Real Madrid and Juventus in the same way Lukaku has at Everton, floating in and out of his sides usually as an understudy to a more illustrious name – although the 24-year-old is now Spain’s first-choice up front.
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But plenty of strikers have enjoyed fantastic form during their first seasons in the Premier League, not least including Costa who’d spent his entire career in Portugal and Spain before moving to Stamford Bridge in 2014. That certainly didn’t slow him down and in fact highlights how style of play is as important as experience when adapting to the somewhat idiosyncratic English top flight.
“I am happy in Italy but Germany and England are both countries where my style of football could be better suited.ÂI like the Premier League a lot because of the way football is played there. It’s more attractive for a striker because it is not as tactical as in Italy.”
Morata stated himself last year that his style of play is better suited to English and German football, something which stands out when watching him in action. The 20-cap international is tall but mobile, rendering him effective in the high press, stretches defences with darting runs down the channels and has a subtle yet integral aggression about his game. That mix of physicality, aggression, energy and, of course, technical quality is practically the litmus test for Premier League players nowadays.
More than simply a good fit for the Premier League, however, Morata’s combination makes him a far more natural successor to Costa than Lukaku, who rarely uses his imperious physicality to impose himself on the opposition in the way you’d expect of a 23-year-old centre-forward. Indeed, Lukaku is more of the pure poacher mould despite his size, always looking to get on the shoulder of the last defender or run beyond the backline on the counter-attack.
Of course, the trade-off is quite simply Lukaku’s lethal supply of goals. If he could replicate his 25-goal haul last season at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea would have a pretty good chance of retaining the Premier League title next term considering how solid they are defensively.
Yet, goals provided from up front have rarely been the most important returns for Chelsea throughout the Roman Abramovich era; just two out of ten seasons saw Didier Drogba score more than 12 Premier League goals and none of Costa’s three seasons have produced a Golden Boot, despite two ending in title wins – in fact, even when Chelsea won the Champions League in 201/12, their entire strike-force scored just 42 goals throughout their 61 competitive fixtures that season.
Bringing Chelsea’s sensationally talented midfielders into the game has proved far more important, the first being Frank Lampard and the second being the current talisman Eden Hazard. Perhaps Conte hoped Lukaku would help readdress the balance somewhat but currently, the Belgian winger is Chelsea’s most valuable player by quite some distance; it’s more important a striker can get the best out of him than netting 20 or 30 times himself.
Last season, for example, Costa to Hazard was the joint-11th most common assist-to-goal combination in the Premier League. Hazard to Costa, meanwhile, didn’t even rank in the top 20.
In that regard, Morata remains head and shoulders above Lukaku – as you can see from the statistics. The quality of link-up play is a difficult subject to judge statistically – some argue no aspect of football should be analysed on numbers alone – but Morata does trump the towering Belgian for chances created, assists, passes, duels won, tackles won, fouls won and fouls committed per ninety minutes.
That highlights how although Lukaku is a great goalscorer, Morata offers far more in terms of all-round centre-forward play – easily the greatest asset Costa currently offers Chelsea.
And perhaps the fact Morata wasn’t Chelsea’s first-choice will work in their favour as well, the Spaniard arriving at Stamford Bridge with a point to prove – especially after being forced to play bit-part roles at Real Madrid and Juventus – and the driving ambition to outperform Lukaku at United.
It’s the kind of subplot we often overlook in football, particularly when the statistics are brought out, but could prove to be a pivotal one in this instance.
As with any transfer, however, Morata’s potential move to Chelsea will likely come down to price. It’s claimed Real Madrid want £79.62million (€90million) – but how much do you think he’s worth Blues supporters?
