NFL Week 18 can be challenging for the oddsmakers because of all the unknown variables they have to consider, from starters sitting to teams prioritizing a better draft pick.
As for a new unknown variable: which playoff team wants to face the Houston Texans the most?
In recent seasons, many NFL head coaches have favored rest over playoff seeding during the final week of the regular season. But there’s a steep drop-off in competition after the top three seeds in the AFC. Teams aren’t lining up to face the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens.
However, the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers could vy for the advantageous right to face the Texans, who are locked into the fourth seed. Opening the postseason in Houston as the fifth seed could be the best path for Pittsburgh or Los Angeles to advance into the divisional round.
The Steelers are still battling with the Ravens for the AFC North, but a home victory against the struggling Cleveland Browns, a 20-point underdog, would wrap up the division for Baltimore. With the Ravens playing first in Saturday’s doubleheader, the Steelers would know if the division is still up for grabs before facing the Cincinnati Bengals, who were -1.5 road favorites at FanDuel Sportsbook as of late Thursday.
John Murray, the vice president of race and sports at the Westgate Superbook, said he isn’t worried about Steelers coach Mike Tomlin resting his starters against the Bengals if the Ravens clinch the division earlier in the day. It wouldn’t be a total surprise, though, if this scenario occurs and Tomlin makes a last-minute decision to favor rest and takes his chances against the Ravens in a wild-card game. They have played their AFC North rival well over the years. Also, Pittsburgh lacks depth and would benefit from resting George Pickens and T.J. Watt, two star players who have dealt injuries in the past few weeks.
But Murray expects the Steelers to be active in the race to play the Texans. As for another factor to consider, the Steelers probably want to avoid going into the postseason with a four-game losing streak and could gain momentum by ending the Bengals’ playoff hopes. Cincinnati needs a win and losses from the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins on Sunday to take the seventh and final seed in the AFC.
“We’ve already built [that scenario] into the line that the Steelers will be trying because they could get the fifth seed and play at Houston, instead of going to Baltimore,” Murray says. “That’s huge. I think the expectation is already that the Steelers are going to try to win.
“It’s interesting. They do play the Ravens tough. But Houston has looked so vulnerable the last few weeks, if I’m the Chargers or Steelers, I’m doing everything I can to get into that 4 vs. 5 game.”
The matchup between the Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday could be one to avoid—or the one with an enticing advantage, depending on how you play this regular-season finale. On one hand, you could take the Raiders at +4.5 and hope that the Steelers beat the Bengals on Saturday. That would make it a meaningless game for the Chargers, perhaps forcing coach Jim Harbaugh to rest his starters in Las Vegas. Or you can take the Chargers at -4.5 now and avoid the possibility of the line increasing if the Bengals beat the Steelers to open the door for L.A. to take the fifth seed and play in Houston next week.
Taking the Bengals and Chargers could also be a two-for-one betting situation. But it’s not a given that a motivated Chargers squad would cover the 4.5 points vs. a Raiders team that doesn’t care for a better draft pick. Raiders coach Antonio Pierce might need a win to save his job.
“You gotta be careful with that game,” Murray says.
For these two games, I’ll take the Steelers as home dogs and take the plus points with the Raiders. The Steelers have the defense to contain Joe Burrow’s offense, and the last time these two rivals met, Russell Wilson carved up the Bengals’ secondary for a 400-yard performance and a 44–38 win last month. If I’m right about Pittsburgh, I’ll be ahead with the Raiders possibly facing the Chargers’ backups.
As for another quirky Week 18 game, Murray said he’s received many bets in support of the Chiefs, who are 10-point underdogs vs. the Broncos because they’re expected to rest their star players. I wouldn’t be surprised if Chiefs backup Carson Wentz does enough to cover this spread vs. a desperate Broncos squad that needs the win to make the postseason.
“It’s not impossible, it does happen,” Murray says. “We’ve seen action on K.C. Right when we opened it on Sunday, we took money on Kansas City +10 immediately. It went down to 9.5 to now 10.5. People take those big pluses all the time.”
The showdown between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings is one game where you don’t have to worry about unknown variables. Everyone is playing in that game. Let’s start our final betting tips of the season with the massive NFC North game.
Manzano’s NFL Week 18 Betting Tips
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Stick with the trend: Lions (-2.5) vs. Vikings
The Lions have been the darling of the betting public this season. Don’t go away from them now just because the Vikings have a nine-game winning streak and a healthier roster.
Stick with the Lions. They still have an elite offense, one that dropped 31 points on Minnesota’s stout defense during a Week 7 road victory. Now the Lions get the Vikings at home. They haven’t missed a beat offensively with Jahmyr Gibbs taking over as the lead back since David Montgomery sustained a knee injury.
Murray said it’s tough to gauge where the public and sharps sit with this Week 18 showdown for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. On Tuesday, the Westgate Superbook received a hefty sharp play on the Lions that led them to move the line to -3. With a favorable line, the Westgate then received many tickets in support of the Vikings.
“There’s going to be a lot of money on both sides,” Murray says.”
Enticing Bet: Raiders (+4.5 ) vs. Chargers
As mentioned above, I’m banking on the Steelers to beat the Bengals on Saturday and getting 4.5 points for the Raiders against the Chargers, who would likely rest their starters if they’re locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC.
“We take a little bit of a smaller limit on the games that have more of the unknown variables,” Murray says. “We take full limits on Steelers-Bengals or Lions-Vikings, but in some of these other games, we’re a little bit more cautious, because you just don’t know the motivational level of some of these teams. The Chargers-Raiders game is the perfect example. We don’t really know how much they’re going to care until we see what happens on Saturday, so we’re trying to be a little more cautious with a game like that.”
Moneyline Dog: Jaguars (+180) at Colts
It’s gotten so messy for the Indianapolis Colts that it wouldn’t be surprising if owner Jim Irsay cleans house after the season. Coach Shane Steichen could be in trouble if they end the season with losses to the New York Giants, which is embarrassing enough, and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Not So Risky: New York Jets (+1) vs. Dolphins
It’s rarely wise to bet on the New York Jets, but I’m banking on Aaron Rodgers having a vintage performance for potentially the final game of his career. Also, the Dolphins could be without Tua Tagovailoa for the second consecutive week.
Stay Away: Buccaneers (-14) vs. Saints
This is too many points to lay for a divisional matchup. Also, it wasn’t that long ago when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lost to Cooper Rush and Dallas Cowboys.
Parlay: Chiefs (+10.5) at Broncos; 49ers (+4) at Cardinals; Giants (+3) at Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles wouldn’t mind losing to the Giants here to hurt the draft pick of their NFC East rivals. Expect Drew Lock to outduel Tanner McKee to make it two consecutive wins for the Giants.
“Philadelphia could easily beat New York because New York shouldn’t even want to win,” Murray says. “But I don’t want to get too far out of bounds. I don’t know the motivation level of either team. Philadelphia needs to be getting ready for its wild-card game the following week, the Giants should be looking ahead to the draft.
“Let’s not get too sideways on that game because I don’t know what’s going to happen. Sometimes if you don’t know what to do, you just make the home team a small favorite and move on.”
Best Over/Under Total: Lions-Vikings (over 56.5, -110)
A whole lot of touchdowns will be scored in this one.
“It’s a really high total, especially when you consider how good the Vikings are defensively,” Murray says. “But I know the public is going to bet that game over, for sure. And I get it, it’s hard not to bet over in a Detroit game.”
